The Trance of Speed - Ray on Racing from 148.ca

The Trance of Speed

Ray Cotolo
December 7, 2013

Although I have only been inside this industry for four years, I find the same obsession in any avid follower of the sport - their love of speed. No doubt that the harness racing industry has become a speed game over the last decade or two, but it is absurd to me when it affects people's handicapping.

The major example of such an act occurred in the 2013 William Haughton Memorial, where in hindsight Pet Rock was the best candidate to win. The betting favorite was Warrawee Needy, a freak-of-nature who kicked home in :26 to equal the all-time mile record of 1:46.4 in his elimination. Sent off at 3/2, Warrawee Needy parked the majority of the way battling with Pet Rock, who brushed to the lead from fourth a bit after the first quarter. Now, if the fastest horse is the best horse, then Warrawee Needy should have won, but instead, he succumbed to fatigue and finished off the board to Pet Rock in a 1:47 mile. While I didn't have Pet Rock due to the scenario I saw in the final, I was not surprised he won, though mad I didn't give him out, as 7-1 was incredible value.

This angle of "the fastest horse" proves unsuccessful on many occasions. While off on Friday night, I decided to handicap a few races from Fraser, then seeing a very vulnerable favorite. Take a look at Zeballos's lines (used from files from Brisnet, TrackMaster).

The public sent her off at even-money (1-1) just from her last mile, which is fast in terms of Fraser's surface. They were compelled by her 11-length brush to the lead within the middle half of the race, but I noticed how she was caught very easily at the wire. I took a look at Cool One, who was starting from post 4 in that race. She had been caught behind fading horses and too far back to catch the leader in her last start, so I thought she would be more aggressively driven in the mile. Sure enough, Zeballos made a swift brush to the lead and was in front by 5 lengths heading into the stretch, just to get caught by Cool One, who went off at 7-1.

Another instance of speed handicapping came at the Meadowlands this past Friday night. Below are the last six races of the horse in question, Ramalama.

She spent the last two months of 2013 racing on half-mile ovals, so times of 1:52.1 and 1:53.1 are very fast for the four-turn tracks. Likely, the bettors' eyes were also caught by all of her first place efforts, specifically among top competition in the Opens at Yonkers and Saratoga. Of course, she was sent off as the 2-1 favorite in the co-feature race of the night, an A-2/A-1/FFA Handicap Pace.

The wings of the gate had departed and Ramalama was sent for the front from post 9, which should be noted was a post for FFA (Free For All) classified horses. Also leaving was Lorrie Please, who had been parked against these mares the week before. Ramalama ended up sitting a golden-pocket trip, but could only give chase as Lorrie Please held command to win as the 2-1 second choice.

Finally, this time at Pompano Park, the seven-year-old Artsplace gelding Premier was sent off as the favorite in the Saturday night opener, the second preliminary of a conditioned stake series for $10,000 Claimers. Take a look at his last six starts.

He competed in the first preliminary of the claiming series, named "The Murdock Hanover." From the rail, he led all the way and despite putting up mild fractions, was caught by a neck at the wire. Ignoring his break against better competition, he has one win against this group and three against $15,000 Claimers. It was a combination of his recent record and class that sent him off as the 1/5 favorite in a field of six.

Sure enough, those wary that he could hold the lead for the whole mile received their payday. Premier led for most of the mile, but was caught by the first over sweep of Fox Valley Griffin in a 1:54.3 mile; Premier finished fourth. This example also proves the positive aspect of "taking a shot."

It should be noted that there is a difference between handicapping on speed and that the horse is just better than the rest of them. Take a look at current Florida-dominating pacer Praire Jaguar.

His lines read a "rags to riches" story, starting from the bottom company then slowly climbing the class ladder until he reached the top, the Open 1 Handicap Pace, where he needed to be assigned a post to even-out the field. Yes, the Spy Hard gelding puts up fast fractions and fast miles, but he always emerges victorious against his foes, despite their talent. It isn't the times that matter here, it's the fact that he stepped up in every one of his starts and beat his foes impressively. He also won in this company the start before in gate-to-wire fashion.

Overall, the fastest horse doesn't always win. Solely looking at speed, the angle doesn't work and in any future study, would likely prove unprofitable. Now, I understand it is an easy way to handicap races, but the handicapper should focus on success, not hitting one every now and again. The fastest horse might not always win, but the handicapper who reads between every line is the overall champion.

Ray Cotolo, long time follower of the harness racing industry, is a presenter on North American Harness Update.

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