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Keep It Simple |
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Ray Cotolo April 22, 2014 |
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The same old song and dance about innovations in the industry revolving around the handicapping
spectrum has been played for numerous decades. From fluctuating distance and surface changes to
adding information to the racing program, including the new regulation in place by the USTA forcing
tracks to record in hundredths of seconds rather than fifths commencing in 2016. Our culture seeks
entertainment in three ways: it makes them feel good, it's mindless and it's quick. If harness
racing met these standards, it'd be the lottery. Many people bet it like the lottery to begin with,
such as a teacher of mine. I was reading a Meadowlands program during down time in the period and
she told me she'd play a daily double of four and two. Why? She's 42.
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While I recognize she didn't notice that it's a different breed than our local track, a showcase of
thoroughbred events, it proves that all the stats and records on the program mean nothing; she's
there just to have a good time. It also brings up the aspect of utilizing the program. If I were
to publish an FAQ on harness racing relative to my classmates, atop the inquiries would be "What do
these numbers mean?" I tend to explain them as simple as possible, saying that the numbers in the
center of the page was the horse's past race/races. They understand that part, but not how to
interpret them, which we'll save for another day. If the industry were to add variables into
handicapping, including the aforementioned distance and surfaces changes, it would arguably
incinerate the standard of racing that has made handicapping simple: the mile distance.
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Other pieces of information that some handicappers proclaim should be included for their use are
equipment changes and track maintenance. Both of these pieces of information are completely
pointless. The only thing they do is perhaps increase your confidence in a horse, but it's a blind
confidence. Tracks missing parts that were scraped off due to bad weather will still have favorites
and long shots winning as normal, while that horse you thought was a contender because he was going
from a blind to open bridal will be the same price as that same horse who went first over the
whole mile and gamely held on for third. These extra pieces of information just make it more
complex and confusing for a newcomer to understand, plus they aren't dire for a successful
handicapping career.
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The philosophy of simplicity is a valuable attribute in all realms of the handicapping world. As
over thinking in life results in negative effects, the same idea transposes into pari-mutual
gambling. Although my method of handicapping might be complex to some, including trying to predict
which horse will be in which position, it's simple to me, and when I over think races, I fail to
distribute winning horses nearly nine times out of ten. It goes hand-in-hand with first instinct,
which tends to be correct more often than second thought.
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Simplicity is the opposite of ignorance, yet it brings bliss. Making what we present in the industry
simple to understand would either have no effect, due to many newcomers' instinct to bet horses like
the lottery, or some effect, advertising it as an easy money maker in a persuasive enough way to
gather interest of any average Joe. It all comes down to our presentation of the sport (which I go
further in-depth into in Redirecting the
Limelight found by clicking here. We can't always advertise the horse, as the only
audience we'd attract is horse lovers, which is great and all, but it won't keep the industry
alive. Bettors will keep this sport going, and if we advertise it as simple and/or have people that
can teach reading the program in a simple way that could prove to great riches, then maybe we'd be
able to widen our audience.
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Just remember, keep it simple, stupid.
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Ray Cotolo, long time follower of the harness racing industry,
is a presenter on North American Harness
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